Let’s talk about one of the most amusing—or if I’m being completely honest, slightly ridiculous—stories in my investment journey. It’s about CELH (Celsius Holdings, Inc.), a stock that I’ve been holding tight for over a year since November 2024.
Imagine this: You buy a stock, its value skyrockets up to +100%, and then you walk away with absolutely nothing from that massive gain.
Why? Because of ego. I set a personal selling target that was way too high, driven by greed. In the end, the market did what it always does to stubborn investors: it dragged the price right back down to where I originally bought it.
Back to square one. Haha.
Before you rush to call me foolish, hold on a second. This isn’t the first time I’ve been blinded by floating profits that turned into nothing but memories. I have quite a “collection” of similar experiences with other stocks like BB (BlackBerry), BABA (Alibaba), and many more. I guess this is just part of the expensive market psychology tuition that every independent investor has to pay.
But instead of throwing in the towel and cutting my losses, I decided to do the exact opposite. I still want to hold CELH. In fact, I am getting ready to average down and add to my position (scale in). Why?
Because this time, I’m no longer relying on feelings. I’m relying on fundamental data.
When Fundamental Logic Defeats Ego
As retail investors, we often feel completely alone when the storm hits. That is why I opened up the institutional ownership data to see which “giants” are betting alongside me on this stock.
The results were quite surprising, yet deeply comforting:
- The Giant’s Footprint: The massive institutional investor holding CELH shares with the lowest average price is BlackRock.
- Their Magic Number: BlackRock entered at an average price of $25.98.
Knowing that one of the largest asset managers in the world is in the exact same boat—and knowing the exact price of their entry ticket—provides a powerful psychological anchor.
Going a step further, I checked the fair value consensus from analysts gathered through Investing.com. Fundamentally, the average analyst sets the fair value of CELH at around $41.83.
The Game Plan: Buying Cheaper Than BlackRock?
As I write this article, CELH’s market closing price yesterday stood at $29.33. It is already getting incredibly close to BlackRock’s average price.
Looking at it through a technical lens, the potential for this stock to drop even deeper is still wide open. As a historical reference, back in 2025, CELH briefly touched its lowest floor at $21.00.
If the market decides to retest last year’s absolute lows, I won’t panic. In fact, that is the exact momentum I am waiting for to lower my current average cost (downside averaging).
Just think about the fascinating side of it: when else do we, as retail investors, get the opportunity to buy a stock at a price significantly cheaper than what a giant like BlackRock paid?
CELH vs. Monster: Peeking at Opportunities from the Giant Next Door
The discussion isn’t over yet, guys. Admittedly, because I regret not selling so much back then, I am naturally trying to find validation that my decision isn’t completely wrong. What follows might look a bit biased, haha, but let’s just roll with it for now.
To see how reasonable CELH’s current positioning is, I tried benchmarking it against Monster Beverage (MNST)—one of the absolute rulers of the global energy drink industry. From this, I stumbled upon a very interesting data anomaly.
When it comes to valuation or market capitalization, the gap between the two is like night and day:
- Monster’s market cap sits around $87.5 billion.
- Celsius Holdings’ market cap is “only” around $7.6 billion.
Mathematically, Monster’s market value is roughly 11 times larger than CELH. Huge difference, right?
However, when you dig into their actual market share data in the United States, the reality is nowhere near as dramatic as the valuation gap.
In the US market, Monster does lead with a market share of about 32.6%. But Celsius Holdings’ portfolio—which now includes CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and Rockstar—has quietly captured about 20.9% of the market share!
Think about the logic here: Monster’s market share is only about 1.5 times larger than CELH’s portfolio, so why on earth is the market pricing its valuation 11 times more expensive?
Of course, the market isn’t stupid. This massive disparity shows that investors are still giving a massive premium to Monster. This makes total sense considering Monster is a much more mature player, has a long track record of profitability, an incredibly powerful distribution network, and a deeply entrenched brand position.
On the flip side, CELH is still in its proving phase in the eyes of the market. Its market share growth is aggressive and significant, but investors—including myself—still need to see if this growth is sustainable, especially after integrating Alani Nu and Rockstar into the company’s portfolio. Likewise, the market is still testing CELH’s ability to protect its profit margins, strengthen cash flow, and, most importantly in my opinion, build consumer loyalty on the same level as Monster.
So, what should we do now? Personally, I’m just going to wait and see for a bit.
After all, the stock market is always full of surprises, and there are no guarantees for the future. And just a reminder, guys, this article is purely a travel journal and a note on my personal strategy, not an invitation to buy or sell. Always use your own analysis and prioritize Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
Let’s see if fundamental data can tame my trading ego this time around, or if the market has another way to teach me a lesson all over again. I honestly can’t wait to write the follow-up post to this topic—whether it turns out to be a take-profit or a cut-loss story, I will tell it completely honestly with nothing to hide.
Just wait for it.
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